Multiple institutions expect nickel supply growth and price decline

According to Mining. com, citing Reuters, some industry analysts predicted at the metal conference that international nickel prices will decline in the coming years as Indonesia, the largest nickel producer, increases supply and production costs decrease.

Chen Yan, Director of Basic Materials and Engineering Research at CICC, estimates that in 2021, Indonesia's nickel supply accounted for 38% of the world's total, and will grow fourfold to 1.2 million tons from 2021 to 2025.

Wang Haoyang from the Shanghai Office of the British Commodity Research Institute predicted that, as the production growth exceeded the demand, the benchmark March nickel contract price on the London Metal Exchange would fall by 7.5% this year to 23741 dollars/ton, and drop to less than 20000 dollars/ton in 2024.

Indonesia mainly produces ferronickel, ice nickel and mixed hydroxide (MHP), which is an intermediate product used to produce Nickel(II) sulfate products for lithium-ion batteries.

"In the next three years, Indonesia's planned capacity to increase production will greatly eliminate the supply bottleneck of Nickel(II) sulfate," Chen Yan said.

Wang Haoyang estimates that the supply of mixed hydroxides in Indonesia will increase fourfold to 600000 tons from 2022 to 2027. Project developers include PT Lygen, PT QMB, Huayou, and Huafei.

Meanwhile, the supply of nickel iron in Indonesia will increase from 114700 tons in 2022 to 201800 tons, according to Wang Yanchen, General Manager of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network UK Branch.

Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) predicts that global refined nickel production will increase from 83400 tons in 2022 to 99800 tons in 2025.

The traditional use of nickel is to produce stainless steel, but currently, with the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, nickel for batteries is growing rapidly.

CICC estimates that nickel for stainless steel will increase from 2.1 million tons in 2022 to 2.4 million tons in 2025. During the same period, the demand for nickel in lithium-ion batteries will increase from 342000 tons in 2022 to 868000 tons, more than doubling. Due to weak market fundamentals and reduced production costs, nickel prices will further decline. The development of lateritic nickel ore will alleviate shortages and reduce production costs, leading to a decrease in the prices of nickel iron and nickel sulfide.