Australia's iron ore production will grow up in the coming years

BMI predicts that Australia's iron ore production will grow at an average annual rate of 0.2% from 2023 to 2027. Compared to the previous five years, this significant slowdown is due to limited new production from existing new projects. BMI predicts that production in 2027 will decrease by 5.1 million tons compared to the level in 2023.

Due to Australia being at the bottom of the global iron ore cost curve, it can provide a healthy buffer for the decline in iron ore prices in the coming years.

BMI points out that the average production cost of Australian iron ore is $30 per ton, while in West Africa it is $40 to $50 per ton, and in China it is $90 per ton.

BMI added that companies will continue to focus on higher quality mineral deposits and hope to maintain a competitive advantage in "green" steel production.

In the long run, production growth will stagnate, and BMI expects production to peak around 2025, possibly less than 1 billion tons. The reason for the slowdown in production can be attributed to the shutdown of small enterprise mines and the decrease in iron ore prices, which has led to a reduction in investment by large companies.